Linear Regression Channels Settings

Markets trade within a range for 70% of the time, so being able to identify and trade correctly can be very important. Ranges tend to be fluid and continually evolving and due to this most range finding tools are graphical which do not produce any outputs that can be traded on.

One tool that can be used is adaptive linear regression channels which will give you a statistical method to solve this problem. It does this by fitting the price to a chain of channels with each being the optimum fit.

This is not easy to do without an indicator and the one I used you can download for free from MQL5.

Curved Linear Regression Indicator

Straight Linear Regression Indicator

When using the Indicator, you will find it only produces the main trend line and one each side but you can increase the amount of extra lines by changing the kstd.

Linear Regression Channels Chart
Linear Regression Channels Chart 2

Linear regression analysis

Looking at the above example it starts with a 3-line deviation on the top side so the first point you may just gauge. When it swings the other way it only goes to the 1st lower line. Now you have the basis of the trade. You will then trade after the 3 line is hit above and then can close out then it hit 1 line below the median. The market after this starts to trend down after this and the 3rd top line is never hit again. At this point, you would wait until another 2 lines are confirmed. This would then change to the top being the first line and the bottom being the second line. At this point, you would then proceed to buy the 2nd lower line and sell at the top 1st line.

Strategy 2

This is just a follow on from the previous strategy. As well as the same analysis you use the first method you would also use a similar technique on a longer dated chart such as the daily chart. This way you can combine the two so you are not trading against the long-term support and resistance levels.

Strategy 1

This is a simple strategy where you buy and sell at certain positions in the leading range. Simply you would sell and the top and buy at the bottom.

Above you have the same pair on a longer dated time frame. Currently you can see that the market has a little room to move on the downside before hitting the resistance lines.

This will reduce the number of trades place using this method but the trades that are taken should have a greater profit factor.